Monday, August 18, 2014

All Star Break Power Rankings

New formula gives 50% more weight to actual record and 50% less weight to my roster rankings. Value of expected winning percentage remained the same.

Team "record" "record since last pr" "Rec rank" "roster rank" "Expected wp rank" "overall score" "ranking last pr"

1-Las Vegas Desperados (AL) 62-27 33-14 1 2 3.5 1.66 3
The clear class of Hobbs. 2nd best record since the last rankings, the best record overall, best roster in the AL. The do everything well.

2-Pawtucket Griffins (NL) 60-29 30-16 2 3 2 2.11 1
The clear class of the NL. 2nd best record, 2nd best expected record, top 3 roster. 2nd fewest run runs surrendered, 7th most runs scored. The favorite in the NL.

3-Kansas City Jayhawks (AL) 58-31 31-15 3.5 1 6 3.77 4
Top pitching, best roster, top 3 record, there is a lot to love here. The only worry is an offense that is only average at scoring runs.

4-Jacksonville See You Now (NL) 56-33 33-13 5 4 1 4 11
The best record since the last rankings propels them up 7 spots. They have the best offense, the best expected winning percentage and a top 4 roster. Their streakiness is a little worrisome. Remove their 18 game winning streak and they are only 38-33.

5-Durham Bulls (NL) 58-31 28-18 3.5 9 3.5 4.11 5
I cheated a little bit to get them this high. They are the only team that does not score well on my roster ranking (their real score was 15th) , but since they are ahead of me in the standing I figured overall score better be pretty close to mine. In theory the WS champ should come from these 5 teams. They is a big jump here. Their offense is top 3.

6-Charlotte Charlotteans (NL) 54-35 30-16 6 7 7 6.33 8
Either 6th or 7th in every category they are pretty consistent. The offense is not quite as good as the rest of the team, but they are good.

7-Indianapolis Cougars (NL) 52-37 23-23 8.5 5 5 7.33 2
Indy lurking at #7 scares the piss out of everyone. We can only hope that Cincinnati and Jacksonville keep them out of the playoffs entirely. The biggest worry is that they seem to getting a bit tired and their recent .500 record shows it.

8-Cheyenne (AL) 53-36 25-21 7 11 8 7.66 6
Eight in scoring runs, tenth in preventing them, 7th in record, they have slowed down a little in the second quarter but are a consistently good team.

9-Cincinnati Red Bowties (NL) 52-37 26-20 8.5 6 9 8.33 7
They have some wonderful hitters, but can’t hit. Their worst hitters are really dragging them down. However, their top 3 pitching has them tied with Indy for the last playoff spot in the NL. No one is more active than jbugg so it will not be from lack of trying.

10-San Juan Padres (NL) 50-39 27-19 10 20 10 11.11 13
They defy the roster rankings a little too, but their bats have them in the playoff hunt.

11-Nashville BootLeggers (AL) 48-41 27-19 12 8 11 11.33 18
Everything about them is above average, but not above average enough to be one of the elite teams.

12-Vancouver Voodoo (AL) 49-40 26-20 11 10 13 11.33 12
If Vancouver could only hit they’d really have something. Still, their WC #2 if the season ended today so mission accomplished so far.

13-Honolulu Hurricanes (AL) 47-42 24-22 13.5 15 14 13.77 14
Playing solid overall. Just above average in hitting, pitching and fielding, but not excelling in any particular aspect of the game

14-Baltimore Buushwackerz (NL) 47-42 26-20 13.5 21 12 14 20
If this is the worst team in your division you have a strong one. Like San Juan and Durham they are playing above their roster, but here they sit within striking distance of the playoffs.

15-Richmond Fire Blitz (AL) 45-44 18-28 16.5 18 15 16.33 9
After a fast start, Richmond really struggled in the 2nd quarter.

16-Jackson Mudslide (AL) 45-44 23-23 16.5 16 18 16.77 17
Jackson’s struggle to score runs is keeping them close to .500

17-Los Angeles Lothbroks (NL) 46-43 20-26 15 27 19.5 17.33 15
Sometimes it’s all about the division you were in.

18-Syracuse Shockers (AL) 43-46 19-27 19 17 16 18.11 10
Syracuse really struggled in the second quarter.

19-Florida TIGERS (AL) 43-46 20-26 19 22 17 18.88 16
Where would this team be without Bryan Iorg? At the break, he is 13-1 with an ERA of 2.00 in 129 innings.

20-Philadelphia Erffdoggs (AL) 43-46 25-21 19 26 23 20.66 26
They actually played really well in the 2nd quarter. Maybe the guys they traded were clubhouse cancers?

21-San Francisco Gothams (NL) 40-49 20-26 22.5 14 19.5 20.88 19

22-Santa Cruz Designated Drinkers (NL) 42-47 25-21 21 30 21 22 29
Santa Cruz was on the slow plan to success, but no one told their players. They tied with Jacksonville for the largest jump in rank.

23-Boise Spuds (AL) 40-49 26-20 22.5 12 26 22.11 25
Boise had a supremely disappointing 1st quarter, but played up to their talent 2nd quarter. I expect more of this.

24-New Orleans Big Test Icicles (AL) 38-51 25-26 24 29 24 24.55 23
I maintain that blanch is doing it wrong. A nearly .500 2nd quarter is no way to build through the draft

25-Trenton Fishermen (AL) 37-52 19-27 26 13 27 24.77 21
After a decent start, Trento is in a tail spin.

26-Chicago Orphans (NL) 37-52 18-28 26 19 28 25.66 24
Chicago really seems to miss Billy Williams Jr.

27-Little Rock Rebels (NL) 37-52 20-23 26 31 22 25.66 27
In the 2nd quarter Little Rock finally started playing like the so-so team jc said they were.

28-St. Louis Blues (NL) 33-56 15-31 29 25 25 27.66 22
St. Louis seems to have already started their rebuild with the recent Nieves trade.

29-San Diego Surf Sharks (AL) 35-54 22-24 28 28 30 28.44 30
The worst offense. Just terrible. Played a little better in the 2nd quarter, but still seems bound for a top 5 pick.

30-New Britain Red Coats (AL) 30-59 14-32 30 23 29 29 28
In full rebuild mode, they are clearly the 3rd worst team.

31-Milwaukee High Lifes (NL) 19-70 10-36 32 24 32 31.11 31
Milwaukee has a better roster than Helena, but a worse record.

32-Helena Hill Williams (NL) 25-64 13-33 31 32 31 31.11 32
Poor, poor hotdog.

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